A survey of the causes of civil conflicts

This article is exploring the possible causes of civil conflict mainly concerning economic conditions such as economic development or commodity price shocks and natural factors such as climate shocks or abundance of natural resources.

[Authors’ summary: We provide an overview of the roots of civil conflict and distinguish between economic conditions and natural factors. We discuss the very recent (quasi-experimental) evidence on the effect of economic wealth, commodity prices and climate on the likelihood of civil conflict. As a preamble, we present an overview of the theoretical literature on the roots of conflict and distinguish between “capacity-related” and “opportunity related” causes of conflict. We also provide policy implications regarding the prevention of civil conflicts.]

Table of content:

1. Introduction
2. The theoretical roots of civil conflict
   • The theory of conflict: capacity and opportunity
   • Civil conflict: state capacity and rebels opportunity
3. Economic wealth and civil conflict
4. The quest for causality and for recovering the mechanisms
   • Commodity price shocks
   • Climate
5. Policy implications
6. Conclusion